Antalyaspor 2-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Kasımpaşa (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Antalyaspor face Kasımpaşa.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Antalyaspor host Kasımpaşa at Corendon Airlines Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor at Corendon Airlines Park this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Kasımpaşa — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Antalyaspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Kasımpaşa in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Antalyaspor, 3 for Kasımpaşa and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Antalyaspor trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Kasımpaşa trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Antalyaspor 59% and Kasımpaşa 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 48% | Kasımpaşa 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.71 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.831 / defence 1.056 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.359 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.613 / away 1.214. Kasımpaşa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Antalyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Kasımpaşa have an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Antalyaspor games / 61 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 37% | Draw 24% | Kasımpaşa 39%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Kasımpaşa 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 60% | Kasımpaşa 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 37% | Draw 24% | Kasımpaşa 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Antalyaspor 1.71 / Kasımpaşa 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.831 / def 1.056 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.359 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.613 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Kasımpaşa xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Antalyaspor 2 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 37% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (7 meetings): Antalyaspor 1W | Draws 3 | Kasımpaşa 3W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 0.83x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
37%
2.67
24%
4.18
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
3.46
1.74
Kasımpaşa xG
2.67
37%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
17%
5.71
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
7%
15.28
7%
14.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.74 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antalyaspor come into this having played 61 games, going 19W 19D 23L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 1.43 PPG from 61 outings (23W 18D 20L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.25 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Antalyaspor's home form reads 13W 11D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kasımpaşa have taken 1.40 points per game from 30 outings (11W 9D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.69 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 67%.
Last 61 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 19W 19D 23L in their last 61 games (1.25 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 23W 18D 20L in their last 61 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.67 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Antalyaspor
4
Draws
3
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 3, Kasımpaşa have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-0 Antalyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 57%, Kasımpaşa 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Antalyaspor) and 70% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Antalyaspor's games and 70% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Antalyaspor's matches and 70% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antalyaspor defy the odds to beat Kasımpaşa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Kasımpaşa 2-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.71 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.74 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.06 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.36 / defence 1.28, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 37% | Draw 24% | Kasımpaşa 39%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Antalyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 48%, Kasımpaşa 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.25 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.