Antalyaspor 0-0 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Antalyaspor host Kasımpaşa at Corendon Airlines Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 20 December 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor at Corendon Airlines Park this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Corendon Airlines Park.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Antalyaspor have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Antalyaspor, 2 for Kasımpaşa and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2023, ended 1–3 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Antalyaspor trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Kasımpaşa trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 49% versus Kasımpaşa 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 45% | Kasımpaşa 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.72 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.908 / defence 0.859 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.019 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.285. Data: 51 Antalyaspor games / 51 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 51% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 25%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Kasımpaşa 4.00. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Antalyaspor 40% | Kasımpaşa 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Dec 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 51% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Antalyaspor 1.72 / Kasımpaşa 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.908 / def 0.859 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.019 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Kasımpaşa xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 20 December 2023 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Antalyaspor 0 - 0 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 51% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (4 meetings): Antalyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 2W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 0.91x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
51%
1.97
25%
4.07
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.84
1.12
Kasımpaşa xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
17%
6.06
4%
22.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.12 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antalyaspor come into this having played 51 games, going 17W 13D 21L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 1.25 PPG from 51 outings (18W 10D 23L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.25 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Antalyaspor's home form reads 12W 6D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kasımpaşa have taken 1.08 points per game from 25 outings (7W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.41 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 17W 13D 21L in their last 51 games (1.25 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 18W 10D 23L in their last 51 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.68 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Antalyaspor
4
Draws
3
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 3, Kasımpaşa have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-0 Antalyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 56%, Kasımpaşa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Antalyaspor) and 56% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 44% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Antalyaspor's matches and 56% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Antalyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa finished level at 0-0 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.72 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.12 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Kasımpaşa landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.91 / defence 0.86 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.02 / defence 1.19, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 51% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 25%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 45%, Kasımpaşa 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.25 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.