Antalyaspor 2-1 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Corendon Airlines Park plays host to Antalyaspor versus Hatayspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Antalyaspor have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antalyaspor have posted 3W 6D 1L at Corendon Airlines Park — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Hatayspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Hatayspor have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Antalyaspor, 1.10 for Hatayspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Antalyaspor, 1 for Hatayspor and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 50% versus Hatayspor 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 43% | Hatayspor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.16 xG and Hatayspor 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.834 / defence 0.841 | Hatayspor attack 0.614 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.233. Data: 68 Antalyaspor games / 68 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 46% | Draw 36% | Hatayspor 18%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.17 | Draw 2.78 | Hatayspor 5.56. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Hatayspor's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 50% | Hatayspor 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 46% | Draw 36% | Hatayspor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Antalyaspor 1.16 / Hatayspor 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.834 / def 0.841 | Hatayspor attack 0.614 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Hatayspor xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Antalyaspor 2 - 1 Hatayspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 46% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 18% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Antalyaspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Hatayspor?
Record (5 meetings): Antalyaspor 2W | Draws 2 | Hatayspor 1W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Hatayspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Hatayspor's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.61x) against Antalyaspor's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.6%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
46%
2.17
36%
2.79
18%
5.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
1.79
0.64
Hatayspor xG
2.17
46%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
5.54
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
6%
17.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 12.3 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.64 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antalyaspor come into this having played 68 games, going 21W 20D 27L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 0.82 PPG from 68 outings (13W 17D 38L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Antalyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Antalyaspor's home form reads 14W 11D 9L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.53 points per game from 34 outings (4W 6D 24L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 0.81 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Hatayspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 21W 20D 27L in their last 68 games (1.22 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 13W 17D 38L in their last 68 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.56 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Antalyaspor go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won 4-1 on 11 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 5, Hatayspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Hatayspor 2-3 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Hatayspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 53%, Hatayspor 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Antalyaspor) and 56% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 29% of games; Hatayspor in 68%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 26% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 56% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Hatayspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Hatayspor 2-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.16 xG and Hatayspor 0.64 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Antalyaspor beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.83 / defence 0.84 against Hatayspor attack 0.61 / defence 0.96, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 46% | Draw 36% | Hatayspor 18%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 43%, Hatayspor 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Hatayspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Antalyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.