Antalyaspor 0-0 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Göztepe travel to Corendon Airlines Park to take on Antalyaspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 August 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Antalyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antalyaspor have posted 4W 4D 2L at Corendon Airlines Park — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Antalyaspor, 1 for Göztepe and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2022, ended 0–4 with Göztepe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.76 xG and Göztepe 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.920 / defence 0.955 | Göztepe attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.301. Data: 38 Antalyaspor games / 0 Göztepe games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 53% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 22%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Göztepe 4.55. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 53% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Antalyaspor 1.76 / Göztepe 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.920 / def 0.955 | Göztepe attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Göztepe xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Göztepe kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Göztepe?
Antalyaspor 0 - 0 Göztepe.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Göztepe part of?
Antalyaspor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 53% chance of winning, Göztepe a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Antalyaspor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Göztepe?
Record (2 meetings): Antalyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Göztepe 1W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Göztepe in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.87
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.81
1.06
Göztepe xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
4%
27.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.06 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Pre-Season
Göztepe
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antalyaspor and Göztepe runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Göztepe have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2022, when Göztepe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
4
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 0, Göztepe have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Göztepe 2-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Göztepe?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Antalyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 1, as Antalyaspor and Göztepe drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.76 xG and Göztepe 1.06 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Göztepe landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.92 / defence 0.95 against Göztepe attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 53% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 22%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.