Antalyaspor 0-2 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Antalyaspor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Corendon Airlines Park plays host to Antalyaspor versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Antalyaspor have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Corendon Airlines Park.
Fenerbahçe (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 9W 1D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Fenerbahçe arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Fenerbahçe, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 2–3 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 51% versus Fenerbahçe 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 42% | Fenerbahçe 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 0.77 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.792 / defence 0.763 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.515 / defence 0.653. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.189. Antalyaspor's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.653 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.515 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Antalyaspor's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Antalyaspor games / 59 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 19% | Draw 33% | Fenerbahçe 49%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 5.26 | Draw 3.03 | Fenerbahçe 2.04. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 40% | Fenerbahçe 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 19% | Draw 33% | Fenerbahçe 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Antalyaspor 0.77 / Fenerbahçe 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.792 / def 0.763 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.515 / def 0.653 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Fenerbahçe xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Antalyaspor 0 - 2 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 19% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 49% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (5 meetings): Antalyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Fenerbahçe 4W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Antalyaspor's attack rating (0.79) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.51x) against Antalyaspor's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
19%
5.38
33%
3.08
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.14
1.38
Fenerbahçe xG
5.38
19%
Home win
3.08
33%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
5%
21.28
23%
4.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 16.1 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.38 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 19W 18D 22L from 59 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 44W 8D 7L across 59 games — 2.37 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.10 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Antalyaspor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 13W 9D 7L from 29 games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 22W 4D 3L across 29 trips, a 2.41 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.51 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 19W 18D 22L in their last 59 games (1.27 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 44W 8D 7L in their last 59 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.66 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.41 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 3-0 on 2 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
8
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Antalyaspor 2-2 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 55%, Fenerbahçe 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Antalyaspor) and 59% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 41%; Antalyaspor have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 48% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Antalyaspor's matches and 59% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Antalyaspor 0-2 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 0.77 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.38 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.79 / defence 0.76 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.51 / defence 0.65, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 19% | Draw 33% | Fenerbahçe 49%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 42%, Fenerbahçe 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.