Antalyaspor 1-2 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Antalyaspor (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Antalyaspor face Fatih Karagümrük.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Corendon Airlines Park plays host to Antalyaspor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 30 August 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Antalyaspor's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Corendon Airlines Park this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 0W 0D 2L across 2 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Antalyaspor's 1.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Fatih Karagümrük's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Across 6 previous meetings, Antalyaspor are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2024, ended 1–4 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Antalyaspor and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.77 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.003 / defence 0.913 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.729 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.287. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Antalyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Antalyaspor games / 2 Fatih Karagümrük games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 58% | Draw 24% | Fatih Karagümrük 17%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Fatih Karagümrük 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Antalyaspor (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 58% | Draw 24% | Fatih Karagümrük 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 48% | xG Antalyaspor 1.77 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.003 / def 0.913 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.729 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Fatih Karagümrük xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Antalyaspor 1 - 2 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 58% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (6 meetings): Antalyaspor 4W | Draws 1 | Fatih Karagümrük 1W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Fatih Karagümrük's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.73x) against Antalyaspor's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
The sample (39/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
58%
1.71
24%
4.16
17%
5.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.62
0.86
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
5.72
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
3%
33.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.0 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.86 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 2L across 2 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Antalyaspor by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fatih Karagümrük heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antalyaspor are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 0.00 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antalyaspor have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Fatih Karagümrük in 0%.
Defensively: Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Early Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
Have Antalyaspor or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Fatih Karagümrük go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won 3-0 on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Antalyaspor
1
Draws
3
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 4, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 0% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fatih Karagümrük defy the odds to beat Antalyaspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Antalyaspor 1-2 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.77 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.86 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.91 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.73 / defence 1.27, drawn from 39/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 58% | Draw 24% | Fatih Karagümrük 17%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Fatih Karagümrük win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 0%, Fatih Karagümrük 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Antalyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Fatih Karagümrük winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Antalyaspor shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fatih Karagümrük scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.