Antalyaspor 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Corendon Airlines Park plays host to Antalyaspor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 10:30 UTC.
Current Form
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Corendon Airlines Park this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Corendon Airlines Park.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across 4 previous meetings, Antalyaspor are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Antalyaspor winning.
The historical record gives Antalyaspor a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 48% versus Fatih Karagümrük 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 44% | Fatih Karagümrük 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.21 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.849 / defence 0.860 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.914 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.238. Data: 50 Antalyaspor games / 50 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 40% | Draw 32% | Fatih Karagümrük 28%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Fatih Karagümrük 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Antalyaspor 40% | Fatih Karagümrük 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 40% | Draw 32% | Fatih Karagümrük 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Antalyaspor 1.21 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.849 / def 0.860 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.914 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Fatih Karagümrük xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Antalyaspor 2 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 40% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (4 meetings): Antalyaspor 3W | Draws 1 | Fatih Karagümrük 0W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Fatih Karagümrük's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.91x) against Antalyaspor's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
40%
2.50
32%
3.17
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.18
0.97
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
8%
11.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.97 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 16W 13D 21L from 50 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 16L across 50 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.36 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 11W 6D 7L from 24 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 7W 9D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.84 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük in 62%.
Last 50 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 16W 13D 21L in their last 50 games (1.22 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 17W 17D 16L in their last 50 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.62 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Fatih Karagümrük go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won 3-0 on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Antalyaspor
1
Draws
3
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 4, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 54%, Fatih Karagümrük 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Antalyaspor) and 62% (Fatih Karagümrük). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Antalyaspor's games and 67% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Antalyaspor's matches and 62% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Fatih Karagümrük 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.21 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.97 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 0.86 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.91 / defence 0.91, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 40% | Draw 32% | Fatih Karagümrük 28%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 44%, Fatih Karagümrük 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.22 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.