Antalyaspor 1-4 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Eyüpspor travel to Corendon Airlines Park to take on Antalyaspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 January 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor at Corendon Airlines Park this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Eyüpspor — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 3L across 9 road games this term (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Antalyaspor) versus 1.50 (Eyüpspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Antalyaspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Eyüpspor in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 59% versus Eyüpspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 53% | Eyüpspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.55 xG and Eyüpspor 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.968 / defence 1.034 | Eyüpspor attack 0.811 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.187. Data: 54 Antalyaspor games / 17 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 48% | Draw 30% | Eyüpspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Eyüpspor 4.55. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 60% | Eyüpspor 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jan 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 48% | Draw 30% | Eyüpspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Antalyaspor 1.55 / Eyüpspor 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.968 / def 1.034 | Eyüpspor attack 0.811 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Eyüpspor xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 January 2025 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Antalyaspor 1 - 4 Eyüpspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 48% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 0.97x the league average against Eyüpspor's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
48%
2.07
30%
3.38
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.55
0.99
Eyüpspor xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
5%
21.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.99 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antalyaspor come into this having played 17 games, going 6W 4D 7L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 1.59 PPG from 17 outings (7W 6D 4L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.29 PPG, Eyüpspor on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Antalyaspor's home form reads 5W 1D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Eyüpspor have taken 1.12 points per game from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eyüpspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.47 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Eyüpspor in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 6W 4D 7L in their last 17 games (1.29 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 7W 6D 4L in their last 17 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Antalyaspor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jan 2025, when Eyüpspor won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
0
Draws
2
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Eyüpspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Antalyaspor 3-0 Eyüpspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 50%, Eyüpspor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Antalyaspor) and 50% (Eyüpspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Eyüpspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Antalyaspor's games and 62% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Antalyaspor's matches and 50% of Eyüpspor's.
Do Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Eyüpspor run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Antalyaspor 1-4 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.55 xG and Eyüpspor 0.99 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Eyüpspor outscored their 0.99 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against Eyüpspor attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 54/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 48% | Draw 30% | Eyüpspor 22%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Eyüpspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 53%, Eyüpspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.29 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.