Antalyaspor 3-0 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Antalyaspor face Eyüpspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Eyüpspor travel to Corendon Airlines Park to take on Antalyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Antalyaspor at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eyüpspor — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Antalyaspor) versus 0.90 (Eyüpspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Antalyaspor have won 1, Eyüpspor 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2025, ended Antalyaspor 1–0 Eyüpspor — a Antalyaspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 54% versus Eyüpspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 54% | Eyüpspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.53 xG and Eyüpspor 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.057 / defence 1.438 | Eyüpspor attack 0.815 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.173. Antalyaspor's defence rating of 1.438 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Eyüpspor's projected output up. Data: built from Antalyaspor's last 63 games and Eyüpspor's last 63.
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 30% | Eyüpspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.59 | Draw 3.35 | Eyüpspor 3.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.53 / 1.38) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Antalyaspor's last 10 home games and Eyüpspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Antalyaspor 90% (last 10 home games) | Eyüpspor 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 28 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 30% | Eyüpspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Antalyaspor 1.53 / Eyüpspor 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.057 / def 1.438 | Eyüpspor attack 0.815 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Eyüpspor xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor FAQs
What time does Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Antalyaspor 3 - 0 Eyüpspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 28) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 39% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 1.06x the league average against Eyüpspor's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Antalyaspor's last 63 games and Eyüpspor's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
39%
2.59
30%
3.35
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.91
1.38
Eyüpspor xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
10%
10.25
7%
14.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.38 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antalyaspor come into this having played 63 games, going 18W 15D 30L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 1.19 PPG from 63 outings (20W 15D 28L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.10 PPG, Eyüpspor on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Antalyaspor's home form reads 13W 7D 11L across their last 31 home games, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Eyüpspor have taken 0.94 points per game from their last 31 away games (7W 8D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antalyaspor are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.13 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
Antalyaspor (Home) vs Eyüpspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antalyaspor
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor Form FAQs
What form are Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 18W 15D 30L in their last 63 games (1.10 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 20W 15D 28L in their last 63 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.48 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from January 2025. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 5 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Antalyaspor have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Jan 2025, when Eyüpspor won Antalyaspor 1-4 Eyüpspor.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
0
Draws
2
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Antalyaspor have won 2, Eyüpspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2026: Antalyaspor 3-0 Eyüpspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 71%, Eyüpspor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Antalyaspor) and 42% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Antalyaspor's games and 48% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 42% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 61% of Eyüpspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Antalyaspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Eyüpspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Eyüpspor 3-0 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.53 xG and Eyüpspor 1.38 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Antalyaspor beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eyüpspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.06 / defence 1.44 against Eyüpspor attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 30% | Eyüpspor 32%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 54%, Eyüpspor 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.10 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.