Antalyaspor 3-0 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Eyüpspor travel to Corendon Airlines Park to take on Antalyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 April 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor at Corendon Airlines Park this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eyüpspor — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Antalyaspor) versus 0.90 (Eyüpspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Antalyaspor, 2 for Eyüpspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Antalyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 54% versus Eyüpspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 54% | Eyüpspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.53 xG and Eyüpspor 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.057 / defence 1.438 | Eyüpspor attack 0.815 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.173. Data: 63 Antalyaspor games / 63 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 30% | Eyüpspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Eyüpspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 90% | Eyüpspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 30% | Eyüpspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Antalyaspor 1.53 / Eyüpspor 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.057 / def 1.438 | Eyüpspor attack 0.815 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Eyüpspor xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Antalyaspor 3 - 0 Eyüpspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 39% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor?
Record (3 meetings): Antalyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Eyüpspor 2W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 1.06x the league average against Eyüpspor's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
39%
2.59
30%
3.35
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.91
1.38
Eyüpspor xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
10%
10.25
7%
14.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.38 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antalyaspor come into this having played 63 games, going 18W 15D 30L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 1.19 PPG from 63 outings (20W 15D 28L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.10 PPG, Eyüpspor on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Antalyaspor's home form reads 13W 7D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Eyüpspor have taken 0.94 points per game from 31 outings (7W 8D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antalyaspor are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.13 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 18W 15D 30L in their last 63 games (1.10 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 20W 15D 28L in their last 63 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.48 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Antalyaspor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jan 2025, when Eyüpspor won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
0
Draws
2
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Eyüpspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Antalyaspor 3-0 Eyüpspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 71%, Eyüpspor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Antalyaspor) and 42% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Eyüpspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Antalyaspor's games and 48% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 42% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Antalyaspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Eyüpspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Eyüpspor 3-0 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.53 xG and Eyüpspor 1.38 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Antalyaspor beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eyüpspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.06 / defence 1.44 against Eyüpspor attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 30% | Eyüpspor 32%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 54%, Eyüpspor 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.10 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.