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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Eyüpspor travel to Corendon Airlines Park to take on Antalyaspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 January 2025, 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Antalyaspor at Corendon Airlines Park this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.

Eyüpspor — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 3L across 9 road games this term (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Antalyaspor) versus 1.50 (Eyüpspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Antalyaspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Eyüpspor in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

In-Play Profile

Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 59% versus Eyüpspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 53% | Eyüpspor 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.55 xG and Eyüpspor 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.968 / defence 1.034 | Eyüpspor attack 0.811 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.187. Data: 54 Antalyaspor games / 17 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 48% | Draw 30% | Eyüpspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Eyüpspor 4.55. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 60% | Eyüpspor 67% BTTS from recent games.

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