Antalyaspor 1-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beşiktaş make the trip to Corendon Airlines Park to face Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 January 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Antalyaspor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Antalyaspor, 1.10 for Beşiktaş — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Antalyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Beşiktaş in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Antalyaspor lead 2W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 2–4 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 58% versus Beşiktaş 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 49% | Beşiktaş 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.22 xG and Beşiktaş 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.908 / defence 1.244 | Beşiktaş attack 0.916 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.206. Data: 57 Antalyaspor games / 57 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 31% | Draw 31% | Beşiktaş 38%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Beşiktaş 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 60% | Beşiktaş 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 31% | Draw 31% | Beşiktaş 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Antalyaspor 1.22 / Beşiktaş 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.908 / def 1.244 | Beşiktaş attack 0.916 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.684 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Beşiktaş xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Antalyaspor 1 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 31% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (7 meetings): Antalyaspor 2W | Draws 2 | Beşiktaş 3W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (0.92x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
31%
3.22
31%
3.24
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.60
1.37
Beşiktaş xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
8%
12.72
11%
8.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.37 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Antalyaspor come into this having played 57 games, going 18W 16D 23L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.53 PPG from 57 outings (24W 15D 18L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.53 for Beşiktaş. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Antalyaspor's home form reads 13W 9D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.18 points per game from 28 outings (8W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.40 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 18W 16D 23L in their last 57 games (1.23 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 24W 15D 18L in their last 57 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.71 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Beşiktaş have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
3
Draws
5
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Beşiktaş 4-2 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 57%, Beşiktaş 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Antalyaspor) and 46% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Antalyaspor's games and 57% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 46% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş finished level at 1-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.22 xG and Beşiktaş 1.37 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.24 against Beşiktaş attack 0.92 / defence 0.80, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 31% | Draw 31% | Beşiktaş 38%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 49%, Beşiktaş 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.23 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.