Antalyaspor 3-2 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 36%, yet in-form Beşiktaş provide a compelling counter-argument — this Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beşiktaş make the trip to Corendon Airlines Park to face Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Antalyaspor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Beşiktaş are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Antalyaspor lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 1–3 with Beşiktaş winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 48% versus Beşiktaş 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 41% | Beşiktaş 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.34 xG and Beşiktaş 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.891 / defence 0.886 | Beşiktaş attack 1.177 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.228. Data: 46 Antalyaspor games / 46 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 36% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 33%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Beşiktaş 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beşiktaş (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Antalyaspor 50% | Beşiktaş 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 36% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Antalyaspor 1.34 / Beşiktaş 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.891 / def 0.886 | Beşiktaş attack 1.177 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Beşiktaş xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Antalyaspor 3 - 2 Beşiktaş.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 36% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (4 meetings): Antalyaspor 0W | Draws 2 | Beşiktaş 2W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.18x) against Antalyaspor's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
36%
2.81
32%
3.14
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.62
1.28
Beşiktaş xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
8%
11.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.28 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Antalyaspor come into this having played 46 games, going 14W 11D 21L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 2.11 PPG from 46 outings (29W 10D 7L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Antalyaspor's home form reads 10W 5D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.78 points per game from 23 outings (12W 5D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 2.02 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 14W 11D 21L in their last 46 games (1.15 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 29W 10D 7L in their last 46 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.52 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Beşiktaş have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
3
Draws
5
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Beşiktaş 4-2 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 52%, Beşiktaş 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Antalyaspor) and 56% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş in 30%; Antalyaspor have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Antalyaspor's games and 61% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 56% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Beşiktaş 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Beşiktaş 3-2 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.34 xG and Beşiktaş 1.28 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Antalyaspor beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.89 / defence 0.89 against Beşiktaş attack 1.18 / defence 1.02, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 36% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 33%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 41%, Beşiktaş 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Antalyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.