Ankaragücü 3-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ankaragücü face Kasımpaşa.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Eryaman Stadyumu plays host to Ankaragücü versus Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig (matchday 20). Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 10:30 UK time.
Form
Ankaragücü (all games): 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Ankaragücü have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Kasımpaşa have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kasımpaşa's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Ankaragücü, 1.10 for Kasımpaşa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Kasımpaşa edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Ankaragücü 2–3 Kasımpaşa — a Kasımpaşa win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ankaragücü — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ankaragücü 62% and Kasımpaşa 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ankaragücü 49% | Kasımpaşa 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.08 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.683 / defence 0.876 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.106 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.281. Ankaragücü's attack rating of 0.683 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Ankaragücü's last 55 games and Kasımpaşa's last 55.
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 30% | Draw 32% | Kasımpaşa 38%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 3.32 | Draw 3.15 | Kasımpaşa 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ankaragücü 40% (last 10 home games) | Kasımpaşa 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 20 | Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 30% | Draw 32% | Kasımpaşa 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Ankaragücü 1.08 / Kasımpaşa 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 0.683 / def 0.876 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.106 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Kasımpaşa xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa FAQs
What time does Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa?
Ankaragücü 3 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 20) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 30% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ankaragücü's attack rating (0.68) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (1.11x) against Ankaragücü's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Ankaragücü's last 55 games and Kasımpaşa's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
30%
3.32
32%
3.15
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
2.32
1.24
Kasımpaşa xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
9%
11.48
13%
7.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 1.24 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ankaragücü's recent record stands at 16W 15D 24L from 55 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 24L across 55 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Ankaragücü against 1.25 for Kasımpaşa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ankaragücü have managed 8W 8D 11L from their last 27 home games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 8W 7D 12L across their last 27 away games, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ankaragücü are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.40 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Ankaragücü (Home) vs Kasımpaşa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ankaragücü
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa Form FAQs
What form are Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Ankaragücü have gone 16W 15D 24L in their last 55 games (1.15 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 19W 12D 24L in their last 55 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ankaragücü at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Ankaragücü's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ankaragücü at home: 1.19 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 13 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ankaragücü have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ankaragücü
2
Draws
1
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Ankaragücü have won 1, Kasımpaşa have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 January 2024: Ankaragücü 3-1 Kasımpaşa.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ankaragücü 59%, Kasımpaşa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Ankaragücü) and 56% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Ankaragücü have failed to score in 30% of games; Kasımpaşa in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Ankaragücü's recent matches and 44% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Ankaragücü's recent games and 56% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Ankaragücü's recent matches and 50% of Kasımpaşa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ankaragücü cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ankaragücü beat Kasımpaşa 3-1 at Eryaman Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 1.08 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.24 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ankaragücü beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 0.68 / defence 0.88 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.11 / defence 1.05, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 30% | Draw 32% | Kasımpaşa 38%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ankaragücü win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ankaragücü 49%, Kasımpaşa 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ankaragücü's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ankaragücü 1.15 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ankaragücü win broke the near-deadlock. Ankaragücü (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.