Ankaragücü 3-1 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ankaragücü at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ankaragücü face Gaziantep FK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ankaragücü welcome Gaziantep FK to Eryaman Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ankaragücü have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ankaragücü's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Gaziantep FK — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gaziantep FK's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Ankaragücü) versus 0.90 (Gaziantep FK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Ankaragücü have won 1, Gaziantep FK 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Ankaragücü 1–0 Gaziantep FK — a Ankaragücü win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Ankaragücü in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Gaziantep FK in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ankaragücü 64% versus Gaziantep FK 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ankaragücü 50% | Gaziantep FK 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.31 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.838 / defence 0.938 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.024 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.204. Data: built from Ankaragücü's last 67 games and Gaziantep FK's last 66.
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 38% | Draw 31% | Gaziantep FK 31%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 2.60 | Draw 3.26 | Gaziantep FK 3.24. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ankaragücü are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ankaragücü offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ankaragücü 50% (last 10 home games) | Gaziantep FK 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 32 | Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 38% | Draw 31% | Gaziantep FK 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Ankaragücü 1.31 / Gaziantep FK 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 0.838 / def 0.938 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.024 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Ankaragücü (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Gaziantep FK xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ankaragücü vs Gaziantep FK FAQs
What time does Ankaragücü vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Gaziantep FK?
Ankaragücü 3 - 1 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Ankaragücü vs Gaziantep FK is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 32) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 38% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ankaragücü the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ankaragücü and Gaziantep FK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ankaragücü vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ankaragücü's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Ankaragücü's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ankaragücü's last 67 games and Gaziantep FK's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ankaragücü Win
38%
2.60
31%
3.26
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
2.47
1.16
Gaziantep FK xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
8%
12.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ankaragücü vs Gaziantep FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 1.16 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ankaragücü come into this having played 66 games, going 19W 18D 29L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Gaziantep FK sit at 0.85 PPG from 66 outings (14W 14D 38L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ankaragücü on 1.14 PPG, Gaziantep FK on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ankaragücü's home form reads 11W 10D 12L across their last 33 home games, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Gaziantep FK have taken 0.79 points per game from their last 33 away games (7W 5D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ankaragücü come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ankaragücü are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 0.98 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Current Season
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
Ankaragücü (Home) vs Gaziantep FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ankaragücü
Current Season
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
❓ Ankaragücü vs Gaziantep FK Form FAQs
What form are Ankaragücü and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Ankaragücü have gone 19W 18D 29L in their last 66 games (1.14 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 14W 14D 38L in their last 66 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ankaragücü at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Ankaragücü's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ankaragücü at home: 1.30 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Ankaragücü have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Ankaragücü's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ankaragücü
0
Draws
2
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Ankaragücü vs Gaziantep FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Gaziantep FK?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Ankaragücü have won 2, Gaziantep FK have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2024: Ankaragücü 3-1 Gaziantep FK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ankaragücü 58%, Gaziantep FK 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Ankaragücü) and 61% (Gaziantep FK).
On the defensive side: Ankaragücü have failed to score in 30% of games; Gaziantep FK in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ankaragücü vs Gaziantep FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ankaragücü and Gaziantep FK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Ankaragücü's recent matches and 42% of Gaziantep FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ankaragücü and Gaziantep FK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Ankaragücü's recent games and 61% of Gaziantep FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ankaragücü and Gaziantep FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Ankaragücü's recent matches and 74% of Gaziantep FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ankaragücü cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Gaziantep FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ankaragücü beat Gaziantep FK 3-1 at Eryaman Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 1.31 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.16 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ankaragücü beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 0.84 / defence 0.94 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.02 / defence 1.07, drawn from 67/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 38% | Draw 31% | Gaziantep FK 31%, with Ankaragücü to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ankaragücü 50%, Gaziantep FK 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ankaragücü's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ankaragücü 1.14 PPG, Gaziantep FK 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ankaragücü win broke the near-deadlock. Ankaragücü (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.