Ankaragücü 0-0 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ankaragücü at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ankaragücü vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sivasspor make the trip to Eryaman Stadyumu to face Ankaragücü in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Friday 2 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Ankaragücü (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ankaragücü, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ankaragücü's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Eryaman Stadyumu this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sivasspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Ankaragücü against 1.40 for Sivasspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Ankaragücü 2W, Sivasspor 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with Ankaragücü winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ankaragücü — key trading statistics (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Sivasspor — key trading statistics (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ankaragücü 63% and Sivasspor 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ankaragücü 49% | Sivasspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.51 xG and Sivasspor 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.852 / defence 0.865 | Sivasspor attack 1.048 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.203. Data: 59 Ankaragücü games / 59 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 45% | Draw 30% | Sivasspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Sivasspor 4.00. Ankaragücü hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ankaragücü as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ankaragücü if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ankaragücü 40% | Sivasspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 2 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 45% | Draw 30% | Sivasspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Ankaragücü 1.51 / Sivasspor 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 0.852 / def 0.865 | Sivasspor attack 1.048 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Ankaragücü (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Sivasspor xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ankaragücü vs Sivasspor kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Sivasspor kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 2 February 2024 at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Sivasspor?
Ankaragücü 0 - 0 Sivasspor.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Sivasspor part of?
Ankaragücü vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 45% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ankaragücü the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ankaragücü and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Ankaragücü vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Sivasspor?
Record (3 meetings): Ankaragücü 2W | Draws 0 | Sivasspor 1W.
What form are Ankaragücü and Sivasspor in?
Ankaragücü (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ankaragücü's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (1.05x) against Ankaragücü's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ankaragücü Win
45%
2.22
30%
3.38
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
2.60
1.09
Sivasspor xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
6%
17.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 1.09 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ankaragücü's recent record stands at 18W 16D 25L from 59 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Ankaragücü is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor, meanwhile, have gone 18W 16D 25L across 59 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Ankaragücü against 1.19 for Sivasspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ankaragücü have managed 10W 9D 11L from 30 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sivasspor's away record stands at 11W 2D 17L across 30 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Ankaragücü are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.25 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Sivasspor in 61%.
Last 59 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ankaragücü and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Ankaragücü have gone 18W 16D 25L in their last 59 games (1.19 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 18W 16D 25L in their last 59 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ankaragücü at home or Sivasspor away?
Ankaragücü's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ankaragücü at home: 1.30 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ankaragücü have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ankaragücü
1
Draws
1
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Sivasspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Ankaragücü have won 2, Sivasspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2024, when Ankaragücü 0-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Ankaragücü and Sivasspor?
Ankaragücü have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ankaragücü 57%, Sivasspor 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Ankaragücü) and 70% (Sivasspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ankaragücü have failed to score in 30% of games; Sivasspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ankaragücü play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Ankaragücü's games and 57% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ankaragücü vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Ankaragücü's matches and 70% of Sivasspor's.
Do Ankaragücü and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Ankaragücü have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ankaragücü's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Eryaman Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, as Ankaragücü and Sivasspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 1.51 xG and Sivasspor 1.09 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ankaragücü fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sivasspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 0.85 / defence 0.86 against Sivasspor attack 1.05 / defence 1.18, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 45% | Draw 30% | Sivasspor 25%, with Ankaragücü to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ankaragücü 49%, Sivasspor 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ankaragücü's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Sivasspor's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ankaragücü 1.19 PPG, Sivasspor 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ankaragücü (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.