Ankaragücü 2-1 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Başakşehir (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ankaragücü face Başakşehir.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ankaragücü and Başakşehir meet at Eryaman Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ankaragücü's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ankaragücü have posted 2W 5D 3L at Eryaman Stadyumu — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Başakşehir (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Başakşehir have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Başakşehir arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Ankaragücü 0W, Başakşehir 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ankaragücü half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Başakşehir half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ankaragücü 62% versus Başakşehir 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ankaragücü 49% | Başakşehir 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 0.93 xG and Başakşehir 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.755 / defence 0.978 | Başakşehir attack 1.077 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.141. Ankaragücü's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 Ankaragücü games / 65 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 26% | Draw 34% | Başakşehir 40%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 3.85 | Draw 2.94 | Başakşehir 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ankaragücü 40% | Başakşehir 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 26% | Draw 34% | Başakşehir 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Ankaragücü 0.93 / Başakşehir 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 0.755 / def 0.978 | Başakşehir attack 1.077 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Başakşehir xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ankaragücü vs Başakşehir kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Başakşehir kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Başakşehir?
Ankaragücü 2 - 1 Başakşehir.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Başakşehir part of?
Ankaragücü vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 26% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 40% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ankaragücü and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Ankaragücü vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Başakşehir?
Record (3 meetings): Ankaragücü 0W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 2W.
What form are Ankaragücü and Başakşehir in?
Ankaragücü (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ankaragücü's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (1.08x) against Ankaragücü's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
26%
3.81
34%
2.98
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
2.13
1.20
Başakşehir xG
3.81
26%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
8%
12.67
16%
6.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 14.3 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 1.20 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ankaragücü come into this having played 65 games, going 18W 18D 29L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 1.60 PPG from 65 outings (30W 14D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Başakşehir carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Ankaragücü — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Ankaragücü's home form reads 10W 10D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Başakşehir have taken 1.25 points per game from 32 outings (10W 10D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ankaragücü are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.40 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Current Season
Başakşehir
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ankaragücü and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Ankaragücü have gone 18W 18D 29L in their last 65 games (1.11 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 30W 14D 21L in their last 65 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ankaragücü at home or Başakşehir away?
Ankaragücü's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ankaragücü at home: 1.25 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Ankaragücü or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ankaragücü have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ankaragücü have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ankaragücü
1
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Başakşehir?
From 4 meetings on record, Ankaragücü have won 1, Başakşehir have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Ankaragücü 2-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Ankaragücü and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ankaragücü 56%, Başakşehir 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Ankaragücü) and 34% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Ankaragücü have failed to score in 31% of games; Başakşehir in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ankaragücü play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Ankaragücü's recent matches and 41% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ankaragücü vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Ankaragücü's recent games and 34% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ankaragücü and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Ankaragücü have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ankaragücü defy the odds to beat Başakşehir 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ankaragücü beat Başakşehir 2-1 at Eryaman Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 0.93 xG and Başakşehir 1.20 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ankaragücü beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 0.76 / defence 0.98 against Başakşehir attack 1.08 / defence 0.83, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 26% | Draw 34% | Başakşehir 40%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Ankaragücü win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ankaragücü 49%, Başakşehir 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ankaragücü's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Ankaragücü winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.