Ankaragücü 1-2 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Adana Demirspor travel to Eryaman Stadyumu to take on Ankaragücü. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 7 June 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ankaragücü stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ankaragücü have posted 4W 2D 4L at Eryaman Stadyumu — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Adana Demirspor — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ankaragücü 1.70 PPG, Adana Demirspor 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ankaragücü register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Adana Demirspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ankaragücü, 1 for Adana Demirspor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2023, ended 1–3 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ankaragücü in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ankaragücü 60% and Adana Demirspor 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ankaragücü 54% | Adana Demirspor 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.24 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.841 / defence 1.142 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.125 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.436. Data: 35 Ankaragücü games / 73 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 26% | Draw 23% | Adana Demirspor 52%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | Adana Demirspor 1.92. Adana Demirspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Adana Demirspor as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ankaragücü 60% | Adana Demirspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Jun 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 26% | Draw 23% | Adana Demirspor 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Ankaragücü 1.24 / Adana Demirspor 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 0.841 / def 1.142 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.125 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Adana Demirspor xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 7 June 2023 at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor?
Ankaragücü 1 - 2 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 26% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ankaragücü and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Adana Demirspor?
Record (1 meetings): Ankaragücü 0W | Draws 0 | Adana Demirspor 1W.
What form are Ankaragücü and Adana Demirspor in?
Ankaragücü (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ankaragücü's attack rating (0.84) and Adana Demirspor's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Ankaragücü's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
26%
3.90
23%
4.39
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
3.08
1.84
Adana Demirspor xG
3.90
26%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
16%
6.32
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
4%
24.68
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 1.84 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ankaragücü come into this having played 35 games, going 12W 6D 17L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 1.89 PPG from 35 outings (19W 9D 7L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Adana Demirspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Ankaragücü — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ankaragücü's home form reads 6W 4D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 1.53 points per game from 17 outings (7W 5D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Ankaragücü are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 2.11 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Adana Demirspor in 63%.
Last 35 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Current Season
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ankaragücü and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Ankaragücü have gone 12W 6D 17L in their last 35 games (1.20 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 19W 9D 7L in their last 35 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ankaragücü at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Adana Demirspor's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ankaragücü at home: 1.29 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Ankaragücü or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ankaragücü have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ankaragücü and Adana Demirspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Ankaragücü's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ankaragücü
2
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Adana Demirspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Ankaragücü have won 0, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when Adana Demirspor 1-1 Ankaragücü.
Who has won more matches between Ankaragücü and Adana Demirspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ankaragücü at 65%, Adana Demirspor at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Ankaragücü) and 59% (Adana Demirspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ankaragücü have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ankaragücü play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Ankaragücü's games and 71% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ankaragücü vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Ankaragücü's matches and 59% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Ankaragücü and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Ankaragücü have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Adana Demirspor edge out Ankaragücü 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Ankaragücü 1-2 at Eryaman Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 1.24 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.84 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 0.84 / defence 1.14 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.12 / defence 0.91, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 26% | Draw 23% | Adana Demirspor 52%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ankaragücü 54%, Adana Demirspor 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ankaragücü's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.