Amed vs Çorum FK – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson rates Amed at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amed vs Çorum FK encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Amed and Çorum FK meet at Diyarbakir Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 May 2027 at 12:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Amed have collected 1.75 PPG across 4 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 1.25 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Çorum FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L W. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 2.25. Conceding 2.25 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Çorum FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Form favours the hosts. Amed's 1.75 PPG return is 0.75 points per game ahead of Çorum FK's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Trading Data

Amed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.

Çorum FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amed 50% versus Çorum FK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Amed 75% | Çorum FK 75%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 2.62 xG and Çorum FK 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.095 / defence 0.970 | Çorum FK attack 1.071 / defence 1.543. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.230. Çorum FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.543 — this is suppressing Amed's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Amed games / 4 Çorum FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Amed 66% | Draw 17% | Çorum FK 17%. Fair-value odds: Amed 1.52 | Draw 5.88 | Çorum FK 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Amed (66%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.62 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Amed as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

Poisson projects 3.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Amed 50% | Çorum FK 50%.

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