Amed 1-0 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Amed at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amed vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Diyarbakir Stadium plays host to Amed versus Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Amed have collected 2.00 PPG across 7 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.43 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Amed's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 0L across 4 games at Diyarbakir Stadium this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Diyarbakir Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Amed are significantly better at Diyarbakir Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Amed's favour (2.00 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Amed — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amed 57% versus Konyaspor 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amed 86% | Konyaspor 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 2.31 xG and Konyaspor 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.467 / defence 0.997 | Konyaspor attack 0.848 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.234. Amed carry an above-average attack strength of 1.467 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 7 Amed games / 41 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amed 66% | Draw 19% | Konyaspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Amed 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Konyaspor 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Amed (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amed are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Amed 50% | Konyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Diyarbakir Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 66% | Draw 19% | Konyaspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 58% | xG Amed 2.31 / Konyaspor 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 1.467 / def 0.997 | Konyaspor attack 0.848 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Amed (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Amed xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Konyaspor xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Konyaspor kick off?
Amed vs Konyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What was the final score in Amed vs Konyaspor?
Amed 1 - 0 Konyaspor.
Where is Amed vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What competition is Amed vs Konyaspor part of?
Amed vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 66% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Amed and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Konyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amed and Konyaspor in?
Amed (all comps): 4W-2D-1L in 7 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.43 / GA 1.29 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Amed's attack at 1.47x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.85x) against Amed's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
66%
1.52
19%
5.38
16%
6.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Amed xG
Total xG
3.35
1.04
Konyaspor xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.38
19%
Draw
6.36
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
10%
10.05
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
2%
63.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amed vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Amed and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Amed and 1.04 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Amed vs Konyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Amed's recent record stands at 4W 2D 1L from 7 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Konyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 4L across 7 games — 0.71 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Amed by 1.29 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Konyaspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Amed have managed 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Amed are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Konyaspor's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Amed are averaging 2.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 0.57 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 29%.
Defensively: Konyaspor in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amed
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amed and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Amed have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 games (2.00 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amed at home or Konyaspor away?
Amed's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amed at home: 3.00 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Amed or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amed have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since October 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Amed
0
Draws
0
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Konyaspor?
From 1 meetings on record, Amed have won 1, Konyaspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Amed and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Amed 1-0 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Amed and Konyaspor?
Amed have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amed 67%, Konyaspor 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Amed and 33% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Amed keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Konyaspor in 33%; Konyaspor in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amed home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amed play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Amed's recent matches and 33% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amed vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Amed's matches and 33% of Konyaspor's.
Do Amed and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Amed have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Amed edge out Konyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amed beat Konyaspor 1-0 at Diyarbakir Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amed 2.31 xG and Konyaspor 1.04 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Amed fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Konyaspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amed attack 1.47 / defence 1.00 against Konyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.00, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amed 66% | Draw 19% | Konyaspor 16%, with Amed to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amed 86%, Konyaspor 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amed's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Konyaspor's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Amed arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.71. That form edge translated into the three points. Amed (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.