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Poisson model rates Amed at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amed vs Kocaelispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Kocaelispor make the trip to Diyarbakir Stadium to face Amed in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 January 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Kocaelispor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Kocaelispor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Kocaelispor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 1.27 xG and Kocaelispor 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Kocaelispor attack 0.837 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 0 Amed games / 34 Kocaelispor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Amed 38% | Draw 32% | Kocaelispor 30%. Fair-value odds: Amed 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Kocaelispor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Amed are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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