Amed vs Kasımpaşa – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson model rates Amed at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amed vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Amed host Kasımpaşa at Diyarbakir Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Amed have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 outings — a 1.75 PPG return. Last five: W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 1.25 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.75 PPG (Amed) versus 1.40 (Kasımpaşa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Amed have won 0, Kasımpaşa 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Amed in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.

Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 50% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Amed 50% and Kasımpaşa 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amed 75% | Kasımpaşa 25%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 1.47 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.097 / defence 0.969 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.956 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.230. Data: 4 Amed games / 38 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Amed 45% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 29%. Fair-value odds: Amed 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Kasımpaşa 3.45. Amed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Amed at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Amed 50% | Kasımpaşa 80% BTTS from recent games.

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