Amed vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Amed at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amed vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Diyarbakir Stadium plays host to Amed versus Gençlerbirliği S.K. in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 7 March 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Amed (all games): 2W 1D 1L across 4 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.75 PPG. Last five: W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 1.25 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Gençlerbirliği S.K. have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.75 for Amed, 1.60 for Gençlerbirliği S.K. — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Amed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amed 50% versus Gençlerbirliği S.K. 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amed 75% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 1.89 xG and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.097 / defence 0.969 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.767 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.230. Data: 4 Amed games / 38 Gençlerbirliği S.K. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amed 60% | Draw 22% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 18%. Fair-value odds: Amed 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Amed (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amed as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Amed 50% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Diyarbakir Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 60% | Draw 22% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG Amed 1.89 / Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 1.097 / def 0.969 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.767 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Amed (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Amed xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Gençlerbirliği S.K. xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. kick off?
Amed vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 March 2027 at Diyarbakir Stadium.
Where is Amed vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What competition is Amed vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. part of?
Amed vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 60% chance of winning, Gençlerbirliği S.K. a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Amed and Gençlerbirliği S.K. will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amed and Gençlerbirliği S.K. in?
Amed (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-L-W-D. Gençlerbirliği S.K. (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Amed's attack rating (1.10) and Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack (0.77x) against Amed's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.54
18%
5.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Amed xG
Total xG
2.80
0.91
Gençlerbirliği S.K. xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
5.63
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
3%
37.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amed vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Amed and Gençlerbirliği S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Amed and 0.91 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Amed vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Amed have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 2W 1D 1L record — W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s form line: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Gençlerbirliği S.K., so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Amed against 1.75 for Gençlerbirliği S.K.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Amed are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Gençlerbirliği S.K. are on 1.00 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 4 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amed
Early Season
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amed and Gençlerbirliği S.K. in coming into this match?
Amed have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Gençlerbirliği S.K. have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amed 50%, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Amed and 50% for Gençlerbirliği S.K.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amed home games / Gençlerbirliği S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amed play Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Amed's recent matches and 50% of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amed vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Amed's matches and 50% of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s.
Do Amed and Gençlerbirliği S.K. tend to score early?
Amed have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Gençlerbirliği S.K. in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.