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Poisson model rates Amed at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amed vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Göztepe travel to Diyarbakir Stadium to take on Amed. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 December 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Göztepe have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Göztepe haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Göztepe have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 1.30 xG and Göztepe 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Göztepe attack 0.928 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 0 Amed games / 34 Göztepe games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Amed 36% | Draw 31% | Göztepe 33%. Fair-value odds: Amed 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Göztepe 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amed are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Diyarbakir Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Dec 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Göztepe (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-L • Göztepe away split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | CS 3
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 36% | Draw 31% | Göztepe 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Amed 1.30 / Göztepe 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Göztepe attack 0.928 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.592 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Amed (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Amed xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Göztepe xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Göztepe kick off?
Amed vs Göztepe is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Sunday 20 December 2026 at Diyarbakir Stadium.
Where is Amed vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What competition is Amed vs Göztepe part of?
Amed vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 36% chance of winning, Göztepe a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Amed and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Göztepe?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Amed and Göztepe in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Göztepe (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-L • Göztepe away split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | CS 3
What do the betting odds say about Amed vs Göztepe?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture