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Poisson model rates Amed at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amed vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Amed host Eyüpspor at Diyarbakir Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 November 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Looking at all fixtures this season, Eyüpspor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eyüpspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Eyüpspor have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 1.42 xG and Eyüpspor 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Eyüpspor attack 1.007 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 0 Amed games / 34 Eyüpspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Amed 37% | Draw 30% | Eyüpspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Amed 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Eyüpspor 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Amed are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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