Amed 5-1 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Amed at 83% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amed vs Eyüpspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Amed host Eyüpspor at Diyarbakir Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 November 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Amed have gone 6W 2D 1L from 9 outings — a 2.22 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.22 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Amed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Diyarbakir Stadium, Amed have gone 5W 0D 0L this season (5 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Diyarbakir Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.22 — Amed are significantly better at Diyarbakir Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eyüpspor stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Eyüpspor have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Amed have the edge — a 1.82 PPG advantage (2.22 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Amed in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 89% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Amed 56% | Eyüpspor 11%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amed 78% | Eyüpspor 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 2.99 xG and Eyüpspor 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.306 / defence 0.898 | Eyüpspor attack 0.636 / defence 1.490. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.237. Amed carry an above-average attack strength of 1.306 — their λ of 2.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Eyüpspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.490 — this is suppressing Amed's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Amed games / 43 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amed 83% | Draw 11% | Eyüpspor 6%. Fair-value odds: Amed 1.20 | Draw 9.09 | Eyüpspor 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Amed (83%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amed are the pick at 83% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.69 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amed 40% | Eyüpspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Diyarbakir Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 83% | Draw 11% | Eyüpspor 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 48% | xG Amed 2.99 / Eyüpspor 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 1.306 / def 0.898 | Eyüpspor attack 0.636 / def 1.490 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Amed (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.99
Amed xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Eyüpspor xG
48%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Amed vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What was the final score in Amed vs Eyüpspor?
Amed 5 - 1 Eyüpspor.
Where is Amed vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What competition is Amed vs Eyüpspor part of?
Amed vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 83% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 6% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Amed and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Eyüpspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amed and Eyüpspor in?
Amed (all comps): 6W-2D-1L in 9 | 2.22 PPG | GF 2.22 / GA 1.11 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Eyüpspor (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Amed's attack at 1.31x the league average against Eyüpspor's defence at 1.49x — combine the two and it projects 2.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Amed's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (11.0%), 4-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
83%
1.21
11%
8.88
6%
17.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.0%
Home win
4 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.99
Amed xG
Total xG
3.69
0.71
Eyüpspor xG
1.21
83%
Home win
8.88
11%
Draw
17.01
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
5%
19.83
Win to Nil
41%
2.45
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.0 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amed vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Amed and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.99 expected goals for Amed and 0.71 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Amed vs Eyüpspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Amed come into this having played 9 games, going 6W 2D 1L for 2.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Amed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 0.33 PPG from 9 outings (1W 0D 8L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amed carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.89 PPG clear of Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Amed's home form reads 4W 0D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.22 PPG overall — Amed are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Eyüpspor have taken 0.00 points per game from 4 outings (0W 0D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Amed are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 0.22 scored and 2.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eyüpspor in 11%.
Last 9 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amed
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amed and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Amed have gone 6W 2D 1L in their last 9 games (2.22 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 1W 0D 8L in their last 9 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amed at home or Eyüpspor away?
Amed's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amed at home: 3.00 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Amed or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amed have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Amed and Eyüpspor runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Amed
0
Draws
0
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Eyüpspor?
From 1 meetings on record, Amed have won 1, Eyüpspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Amed and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Amed 5-1 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Amed and Eyüpspor?
Amed have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Amed 50% BTTS, Eyüpspor 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Amed and 50% for Eyüpspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Amed keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Eyüpspor in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amed home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amed play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Amed's recent matches and 0% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amed vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Amed's matches and 50% of Eyüpspor's.
Do Amed and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Amed have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Amed run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Eyüpspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amed beat Eyüpspor 5-1 at Diyarbakir Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amed 2.99 xG and Eyüpspor 0.71 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Amed beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amed attack 1.31 / defence 0.90 against Eyüpspor attack 0.64 / defence 1.49, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amed 83% | Draw 11% | Eyüpspor 6%, with Amed to win its most likely call at 83%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amed 78%, Eyüpspor 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amed's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 11% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Amed arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 0.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Amed (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.75 average — above their attacking norm. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 3.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.