Amed 3-0 Erzurumspor FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amed at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amed vs Erzurumspor FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Erzurumspor FK make the trip to Şilbe Spor Kompleksi to face Amed in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 1.48 xG and Erzurumspor FK 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Erzurumspor FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.157. Data: 0 Amed games / 0 Erzurumspor FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Amed 43% | Draw 30% | Erzurumspor FK 27%. Fair-value odds: Amed 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Erzurumspor FK 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amed as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amed if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Erzurumspor FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Şilbe Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 43% | Draw 30% | Erzurumspor FK 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Amed 1.48 / Erzurumspor FK 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Erzurumspor FK attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Amed (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Amed xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Erzurumspor FK xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Erzurumspor FK kick off?
Amed vs Erzurumspor FK kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Şilbe Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Amed vs Erzurumspor FK?
Amed 3 - 0 Erzurumspor FK.
Where is Amed vs Erzurumspor FK being played?
The match is being played at Şilbe Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Amed vs Erzurumspor FK part of?
Amed vs Erzurumspor FK is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 43% chance of winning, Erzurumspor FK a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Amed and Erzurumspor FK will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Erzurumspor FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Erzurumspor FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amed and Erzurumspor FK in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Amed's attack rating (0.85) and Erzurumspor FK's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Erzurumspor FK's attack (0.85x) against Amed's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
43%
2.33
30%
3.29
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Amed xG
Total xG
2.61
1.13
Erzurumspor FK xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
6%
16.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amed vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Amed and Erzurumspor FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Amed and 1.13 for Erzurumspor FK, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Amed vs Erzurumspor FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amed
Pre-Season
Erzurumspor FK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Amed
0
Draws
0
Erzurumspor FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Erzurumspor FK?
From 1 meetings on record, Amed have won 1, Erzurumspor FK have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Amed and Erzurumspor FK last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Amed 3-0 Erzurumspor FK.
Who has won more matches between Amed and Erzurumspor FK?
Amed have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amed home games / Erzurumspor FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Amed run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Erzurumspor FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amed beat Erzurumspor FK 3-0 at Şilbe Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amed 1.48 xG and Erzurumspor FK 1.13 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Amed beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Erzurumspor FK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amed attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Erzurumspor FK attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amed 43% | Draw 30% | Erzurumspor FK 27%, with Amed to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.