Amed vs Beşiktaş – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Amed at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amed vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Diyarbakir Stadium plays host to Amed versus Beşiktaş in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 20 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Amed (all games): 2W 0D 1L across 3 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Amed's favour (2.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Amed half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Amed 33% | Beşiktaş 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amed 67% | Beşiktaş 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 1.47 xG and Beşiktaş 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.123 / defence 0.960 | Beşiktaş attack 0.933 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.217. Data: 3 Amed games / 37 Beşiktaş games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Amed 46% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 28%. Fair-value odds: Amed 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Beşiktaş 3.57. Amed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Amed at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Amed 33% | Beşiktaş 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Diyarbakir Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 46% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Amed 1.47 / Beşiktaş 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 1.123 / def 0.960 | Beşiktaş attack 0.933 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Amed (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Amed xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Beşiktaş xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Amed vs Beşiktaş is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Diyarbakir Stadium.
Where is Amed vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What competition is Amed vs Beşiktaş part of?
Amed vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 46% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Amed and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Beşiktaş?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amed and Beşiktaş in?
Amed (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Amed's attack rating (1.12) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (0.93x) against Amed's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
The sample (3/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.84
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Amed xG
Total xG
2.56
1.09
Beşiktaş xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
6%
15.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amed vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Amed and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Amed and 1.09 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Amed vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Amed have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 1L record — W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Beşiktaş's form line: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Amed against 2.00 for Beşiktaş. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Amed are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 2.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. Beşiktaş's attacking output running into Amed's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amed
Early Season
Beşiktaş
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amed and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Amed have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Amed or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amed have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Amed) and 33% (Beşiktaş) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Amed) and 33% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Amed keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 33%; Amed have failed to score in 33% of games; Beşiktaş in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amed home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amed play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Amed's recent matches and 33% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amed vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Amed's recent games and 33% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amed and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Amed have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.