Amed vs Alanyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Amed at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amed vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Alanyaspor travel to Diyarbakir Stadium to take on Amed. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 December 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Amed — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Amed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amed at Diyarbakir Stadium this season: 6W 0D 0L from 6 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Diyarbakir Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Amed are significantly better at Diyarbakir Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Amed are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Amed in-play tendencies (10 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (10 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Amed 60% and Alanyaspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Amed 80% | Alanyaspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 2.23 xG and Alanyaspor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.428 / defence 0.917 | Alanyaspor attack 0.816 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Amed carry an above-average attack strength of 1.428 — their λ of 2.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 10 Amed games / 43 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amed 67% | Draw 19% | Alanyaspor 15%. Fair-value odds: Amed 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Alanyaspor 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Amed (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amed are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amed 50% | Alanyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Diyarbakir Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 67% | Draw 19% | Alanyaspor 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 54% | xG Amed 2.23 / Alanyaspor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 1.428 / def 0.917 | Alanyaspor attack 0.816 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Amed (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Amed xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Alanyaspor xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Amed vs Alanyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Diyarbakir Stadium.
Where is Amed vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What competition is Amed vs Alanyaspor part of?
Amed vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 67% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Amed and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Alanyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amed and Alanyaspor in?
Amed (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Amed's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Amed's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
67%
1.50
19%
5.31
15%
6.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Amed xG
Total xG
3.17
0.94
Alanyaspor xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
6.88
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
11%
9.29
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
2%
63.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amed vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Amed and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Amed and 0.94 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Amed vs Alanyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Amed's recent record stands at 7W 2D 1L from 10 games, a 2.30 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Amed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 4L across 10 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Amed by 1.10 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alanyaspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Amed have managed 6W 0D 0L from 6 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.30 PPG overall — Amed are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Amed are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.00 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Amed have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Alanyaspor in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amed
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amed and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Amed have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 games (2.30 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amed at home or Alanyaspor away?
Amed's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amed at home: 3.00 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Amed or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amed have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 30%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amed 50%, Alanyaspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Amed and 67% for Alanyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Amed keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amed home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amed play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Amed's games and 67% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Amed vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Amed's matches and 67% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Amed and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Amed have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.