Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alanyaspor host Çorum FK at Alanya Oba Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Alanyaspor have posted 4W 2D 4L at Alanya Oba Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Çorum FK stand at 1W 1D 2L from 4 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 2.25. Conceding 2.25 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Çorum FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alanyaspor at 1.20 PPG versus Çorum FK's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Çorum FK in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 50% versus Çorum FK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 25% | Çorum FK 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 2.42 xG and Çorum FK 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.014 / defence 0.872 | Çorum FK attack 1.073 / defence 1.545. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.230. Çorum FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.545 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Alanyaspor games / 4 Çorum FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 65% | Draw 18% | Çorum FK 16%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.54 | Draw 5.56 | Çorum FK 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Çorum FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 65% | Draw 18% | Çorum FK 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 62% | xG Alanyaspor 2.42 / Çorum FK 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.014 / def 0.872 | Çorum FK attack 1.073 / def 1.545 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Çorum FK xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 28 February 2027 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK part of?
Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 65% chance of winning, Çorum FK a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Alanyaspor and Çorum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Çorum FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alanyaspor and Çorum FK in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Çorum FK (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 2.25 | L5 D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (1.01) and Çorum FK's defence rating (1.54), the model arrives at 2.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Çorum FK's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
65%
1.53
18%
5.53
16%
6.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.57
1.15
Çorum FK xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.53
18%
Draw
6.07
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
9%
11.30
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
1%
68.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Çorum FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.15 for Çorum FK, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 4 games, going 2W 1D 1L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Çorum FK sit at 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L), a run that reads D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Çorum FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Çorum FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Çorum FK are on 1.75 scored and 2.25 conceded.
Defensively: Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Early Season
Çorum FK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Çorum FK in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Çorum FK have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
Have Alanyaspor or Çorum FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Çorum FK in 25%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Çorum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 50%, Çorum FK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Alanyaspor) and 75% (Çorum FK).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Çorum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Çorum FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 50% of Çorum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 75% of Çorum FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Çorum FK tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Çorum FK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.