Alanyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor meet at Alanya Oba Stadium in Süper Lig (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Alanyaspor's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Trabzonspor (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Trabzonspor arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Trabzonspor edge it 4 wins to 3, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Alanyaspor 1–1 Trabzonspor — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 58% versus Trabzonspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 45% | Trabzonspor 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Alanyaspor surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Trabzonspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.31 xG and Trabzonspor 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.036 / defence 0.986 | Trabzonspor attack 1.364 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.154. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack rating of 1.364, which lifts their away xG to 1.55. Data: built from Alanyaspor's last 64 games and Trabzonspor's last 64.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 30% | Draw 30% | Trabzonspor 41%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 3.34 | Draw 3.39 | Trabzonspor 2.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.31 / 1.55) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Alanyaspor's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alanyaspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 29 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 30% | Draw 30% | Trabzonspor 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Alanyaspor 1.31 / Trabzonspor 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.036 / def 0.986 | Trabzonspor attack 1.364 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Trabzonspor xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor FAQs
What time does Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Alanyaspor 1 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 29) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 30% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 1.04x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (1.36x) against Alanyaspor's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from Alanyaspor's last 64 games and Trabzonspor's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
30%
3.34
30%
3.39
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.87
1.55
Trabzonspor xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
6%
15.78
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.55 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alanyaspor come into this having played 64 games, going 18W 23D 23L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-D.
On the other side, Trabzonspor sit at 1.78 PPG from 64 outings (32W 18D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Alanyaspor's home form reads 13W 9D 10L across their last 32 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Trabzonspor have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 32 away games (13W 9D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.77 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Alanyaspor (Home) vs Trabzonspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor Form FAQs
What form are Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 18W 23D 23L in their last 64 games (1.20 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 32W 18D 14L in their last 64 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.50 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Alanyaspor won Alanyaspor 5-0 Trabzonspor on 9 Jan 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 1D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Alanyaspor have won 3, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Alanyaspor 0-2 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 47% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 50%, Trabzonspor 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Alanyaspor) and 53% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 59% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 53% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 66% of Trabzonspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor finished level at 1-1 at Alanya Oba Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.31 xG and Trabzonspor 1.55 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Trabzonspor attack 1.36 / defence 0.90, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 30% | Draw 30% | Trabzonspor 41%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 45%, Trabzonspor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.