Alanyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor meet at Alanya Oba Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Alanya Oba Stadium, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Alanya Oba Stadium.
Trabzonspor (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Trabzonspor arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Alanyaspor 3W, Trabzonspor 4W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 58% versus Trabzonspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 45% | Trabzonspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.31 xG and Trabzonspor 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.036 / defence 0.986 | Trabzonspor attack 1.364 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.154. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Alanyaspor games / 64 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 30% | Draw 30% | Trabzonspor 41%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Trabzonspor 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 50% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 30% | Draw 30% | Trabzonspor 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Alanyaspor 1.31 / Trabzonspor 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.036 / def 0.986 | Trabzonspor attack 1.364 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Trabzonspor xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Alanyaspor 1 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 30% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (9 meetings): Alanyaspor 3W | Draws 2 | Trabzonspor 4W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Trabzonspor (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 1.04x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (1.36x) against Alanyaspor's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
30%
3.34
30%
3.39
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.87
1.55
Trabzonspor xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
6%
15.78
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.55 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alanyaspor come into this having played 64 games, going 18W 23D 23L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-D.
On the other side, Trabzonspor sit at 1.78 PPG from 64 outings (32W 18D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Alanyaspor's home form reads 13W 9D 10L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Trabzonspor have taken 1.50 points per game from 32 outings (13W 9D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.77 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 18W 23D 23L in their last 64 games (1.20 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 32W 18D 14L in their last 64 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.50 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Alanyaspor won 5-0 on 9 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
4
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 3, Trabzonspor have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 50%, Trabzonspor 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Alanyaspor) and 53% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 59% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 53% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor finished level at 1-1 at Alanya Oba Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.31 xG and Trabzonspor 1.55 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Trabzonspor attack 1.36 / defence 0.90, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 30% | Draw 30% | Trabzonspor 41%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 45%, Trabzonspor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.