Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 15 as Alanyaspor welcome Samsunspor to Alanya Oba Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 December 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Alanya Oba Stadium, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Samsunspor — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Alanyaspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alanyaspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Samsunspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Alanyaspor, 1 for Samsunspor and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with Samsunspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 60% versus Samsunspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 49% | Samsunspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.82 xG and Samsunspor 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.853 / defence 0.940 | Samsunspor attack 0.930 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Samsunspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.347 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Alanyaspor games / 44 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 54% | Draw 23% | Samsunspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Samsunspor 4.35. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 60% | Samsunspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 54% | Draw 23% | Samsunspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Alanyaspor 1.82 / Samsunspor 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.853 / def 0.940 | Samsunspor attack 0.930 / def 1.347 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Samsunspor xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 54% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Alanyaspor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Samsunspor?
Record (6 meetings): Alanyaspor 2W | Draws 3 | Samsunspor 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Samsunspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 0.85x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
54%
1.84
23%
4.36
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.92
1.10
Samsunspor xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
16%
6.19
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
4%
27.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.8 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.10 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 43 games, going 10W 19D 14L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.21 PPG from 43 outings (13W 13D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.14 PPG, Samsunspor on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Alanyaspor's home form reads 7W 7D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 1.10 points per game from 21 outings (6W 5D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.26 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 10W 19D 14L in their last 43 games (1.14 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 13W 13D 17L in their last 43 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.33 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
1
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 2, Samsunspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-3 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Samsunspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 48%, Samsunspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Alanyaspor) and 57% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Samsunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Alanyaspor's games and 67% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 57% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.