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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 31 as Alanyaspor welcome Samsunspor to Alanya Oba Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 27 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Alanya Oba Stadium, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Samsunspor — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alanyaspor 1.10 PPG, Samsunspor 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alanyaspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Samsunspor in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Alanyaspor, 0 for Samsunspor and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 58% versus Samsunspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 44% | Samsunspor 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.73 xG and Samsunspor 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.015 / defence 0.958 | Samsunspor attack 1.063 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.116. Data: 66 Alanyaspor games / 66 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 49% | Draw 29% | Samsunspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Samsunspor 4.35. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 60% | Samsunspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

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