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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 32 as Alanyaspor welcome Samsunspor to GAIN Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 21 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at GAIN Park Stadium, Alanyaspor have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at GAIN Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Samsunspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alanyaspor 0.90 PPG, Samsunspor 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Alanyaspor, 0 for Samsunspor and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 57% versus Samsunspor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 49% | Samsunspor 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.28 xG and Samsunspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.976 / defence 1.159 | Samsunspor attack 0.889 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.172. Data: 67 Alanyaspor games / 68 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 38% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 34%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Samsunspor 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 70% | Samsunspor 30%.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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