🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Alanyaspor host Rizespor at Alanya Oba Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 February 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Alanyaspor — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Alanya Oba Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rizespor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Rizespor away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alanyaspor 1.10 PPG, Rizespor 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Alanyaspor have won 3, Rizespor 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Rizespor in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 62% versus Rizespor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 47% | Rizespor 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.83 xG and Rizespor 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.046 / defence 1.035 | Rizespor attack 0.979 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Alanyaspor games / 34 Rizespor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 51% | Draw 26% | Rizespor 22%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Rizespor 4.55. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Rizespor 50% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights