Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK encounter.

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Match Analysis

Alanyaspor host Çorum FK at Alanya Oba Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Alanyaspor — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Alanyaspor have posted 4W 2D 4L at Alanya Oba Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Çorum FK stand at 0W 1D 2L from 3 Süper Lig matches — 0.33 PPG. Last five: D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Çorum FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On current form, Alanyaspor have the edge — a 0.67 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.33) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alanyaspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Çorum FK in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

In-Play Profile

Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.

Çorum FK in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alanyaspor 67% and Çorum FK 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 33% | Çorum FK 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 2.35 xG and Çorum FK 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.025 / defence 0.873 | Çorum FK attack 1.084 / defence 1.567. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Çorum FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.567 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Alanyaspor games / 3 Çorum FK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 64% | Draw 19% | Çorum FK 17%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | Çorum FK 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.35 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Çorum FK 67% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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