Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alanyaspor host Çorum FK at Alanya Oba Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Alanyaspor have posted 4W 4D 2L at Alanya Oba Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Çorum FK stand at 4W 1D 3L from 8 Süper Lig matches — 1.62 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.25 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Çorum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Çorum FK have posted 2W 1D 1L from 4 away outings — 1.75 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alanyaspor at 1.50 PPG versus Çorum FK's 1.62. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alanyaspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Çorum FK in 75% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Alanyaspor, 0 for Çorum FK and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 2–1 with Alanyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Çorum FK in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 50% versus Çorum FK 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Alanyaspor 50% | Çorum FK 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.65 xG and Çorum FK 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.865 / defence 0.879 | Çorum FK attack 1.482 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.172. Çorum FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Çorum FK have an above-average attack strength of 1.482 — the away xG of 1.53 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Alanyaspor games / 8 Çorum FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 41% | Draw 23% | Çorum FK 36%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.44 | Draw 4.35 | Çorum FK 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 60% | Çorum FK 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 41% | Draw 23% | Çorum FK 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Alanyaspor 1.65 / Çorum FK 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.865 / def 0.879 | Çorum FK attack 1.482 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Çorum FK xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 28 February 2027 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK part of?
Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 41% chance of winning, Çorum FK a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Alanyaspor and Çorum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Çorum FK?
Record (1 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Çorum FK 0W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Çorum FK in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Çorum FK (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 1.62 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (0.86) and Çorum FK's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Çorum FK's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
41%
2.45
23%
4.26
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.17
1.53
Çorum FK xG
2.45
41%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
9%
11.27
7%
14.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Çorum FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.53 for Çorum FK, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 3D 2L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Çorum FK sit at 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Çorum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.50 PPG, Çorum FK on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Alanyaspor's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Çorum FK have taken 2.00 points per game from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Çorum FK are on 2.25 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Çorum FK in 62%.
Defensively: Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Çorum FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Çorum FK in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 games (1.50 PPG), while Çorum FK have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Çorum FK away?
Çorum FK's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.67 PPG; Çorum FK away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Çorum FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Çorum FK in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
0
Draws
0
Çorum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Çorum FK?
From 1 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Çorum FK have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Çorum FK last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Çorum FK 1-2 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Çorum FK?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Çorum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 33%, Çorum FK 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Alanyaspor and 100% for Çorum FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Çorum FK in 33%; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Çorum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Çorum FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 67% of Çorum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Çorum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Alanyaspor's matches and 100% of Çorum FK's.
Do Alanyaspor and Çorum FK tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Çorum FK in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.