🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Konyaspor travel to Alanya Oba Stadium to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 November 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Alanyaspor — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Alanyaspor at Alanya Oba Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Konyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Konyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Konyaspor are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Alanyaspor have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 10 past contests while Konyaspor have managed just 1 wins.

The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Alanyaspor winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Alanyaspor and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Alanyaspor trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Konyaspor trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alanyaspor 62% and Konyaspor 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 47% | Konyaspor 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.77 xG and Konyaspor 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.047 / defence 1.035 | Konyaspor attack 1.052 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Alanyaspor games / 34 Konyaspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 48% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Konyaspor 4.00. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

Alanyaspor dominate the H2H record, yet Konyaspor are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Konyaspor (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights