Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Alanyaspor (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Alanyaspor face Konyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Konyaspor travel to Alanya Oba Stadium to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 November 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor at Alanya Oba Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Alanyaspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Alanyaspor have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 10 past contests while Konyaspor have managed just 1 wins.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Alanyaspor winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Alanyaspor and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Konyaspor trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 60% versus Konyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 48% | Konyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.19 xG and Konyaspor 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.863 / defence 0.868 | Konyaspor attack 0.774 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.187. Data: 42 Alanyaspor games / 42 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 45% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Konyaspor 4.00. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 60% | Konyaspor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 45% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Alanyaspor 1.19 / Konyaspor 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.863 / def 0.868 | Konyaspor attack 0.774 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Konyaspor xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Friday 27 November 2026 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 45% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Alanyaspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Konyaspor?
Record (10 meetings): Alanyaspor 6W | Draws 3 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 0.86x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
45%
2.21
30%
3.32
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
1.99
0.80
Konyaspor xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
7%
13.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.80 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 10W 19D 13L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 11W 12D 19L from 42 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.17 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alanyaspor have posted 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (7W 7D 6L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 3W 5D 12L from 20 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.12 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 10W 19D 13L in their last 42 games (1.17 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 11W 12D 19L in their last 42 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.40 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Alanyaspor have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Alanyaspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 6, Konyaspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Konyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 45%, Konyaspor 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Alanyaspor) and 55% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 30% of games; Konyaspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Alanyaspor's games and 65% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 55% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.