Alanyaspor 2-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 39% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Konyaspor travel to GAİN Park Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Alanyaspor at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Konyaspor stand at 0W 6D 4L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alanyaspor 0.90 PPG, Konyaspor 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Alanyaspor hold a clear advantage across the 9 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 1 for Konyaspor and 3 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2025, ended Alanyaspor 2–1 Konyaspor — a Alanyaspor win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Alanyaspor and goals — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches and an average of 3.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 52%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Konyaspor trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alanyaspor 56% and Konyaspor 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 42% | Konyaspor 51%). Note also that Konyaspor surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Alanyaspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.41 xG and Konyaspor 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.877 / defence 1.015 | Konyaspor attack 0.854 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.317. Data: built from Alanyaspor's last 57 games and Konyaspor's last 57.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 39% | Draw 34% | Konyaspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.54 | Draw 2.95 | Konyaspor 3.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Alanyaspor 5 wins from 9 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alanyaspor 30% (last 10 home games) | Konyaspor 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 22 | Venue: GAİN Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 39% | Draw 34% | Konyaspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Alanyaspor 1.41 / Konyaspor 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.877 / def 1.015 | Konyaspor attack 0.854 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Konyaspor xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor FAQs
What time does Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Alanyaspor 2 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 22) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 39% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Alanyaspor and Konyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 0.88x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Alanyaspor's last 57 games and Konyaspor's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
39%
2.54
34%
2.95
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.55
1.14
Konyaspor xG
2.54
39%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
7%
15.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.14 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 16W 20D 21L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Konyaspor's form line: 17W 15D 25L from 57 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.19 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alanyaspor have posted 1.46 PPG from their last 28 home games (11W 8D 9L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 6W 5D 17L from their last 28 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.21 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 65%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
Alanyaspor (Home) vs Konyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alanyaspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 16W 20D 21L in their last 57 games (1.19 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 17W 15D 25L in their last 57 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.46 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Alanyaspor have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Feb 2022, when Alanyaspor won Alanyaspor 5-1 Konyaspor.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Konyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Alanyaspor have won 6, Konyaspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Alanyaspor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Konyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 50%, Konyaspor 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Alanyaspor) and 54% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alanyaspor and Konyaspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Alanyaspor's games and 68% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 54% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Konyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 82% of Konyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alanyaspor edge out Konyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Konyaspor 2-1 at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.41 xG and Konyaspor 1.14 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against Konyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.20, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 39% | Draw 34% | Konyaspor 27%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 42%, Konyaspor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.19 PPG, Konyaspor 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.