🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Konyaspor travel to GAİN Park Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Alanyaspor — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alanyaspor at GAİN Park Stadyumu this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at GAİN Park Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 0W 6D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Konyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alanyaspor 0.90 PPG, Konyaspor 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Alanyaspor have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 9 past contests while Konyaspor have managed just 1 wins.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Alanyaspor winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Alanyaspor and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Alanyaspor trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).

Konyaspor trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alanyaspor 56% and Konyaspor 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 42% | Konyaspor 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.41 xG and Konyaspor 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.877 / defence 1.015 | Konyaspor attack 0.854 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.317. Data: 57 Alanyaspor games / 57 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 39% | Draw 34% | Konyaspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Konyaspor 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 30% | Konyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights