Alanyaspor 5-0 Kocaelispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Alanyaspor take on Kocaelispor.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alanyaspor host Kocaelispor at GAİN Park Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 27). Kick-off is Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kocaelispor stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Kocaelispor's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Alanyaspor) versus 1.30 (Kocaelispor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Alanyaspor have won 0, Kocaelispor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Alanyaspor 0–2 Kocaelispor — a Kocaelispor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Kocaelispor in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 42% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 62% versus Kocaelispor 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alanyaspor 46% | Kocaelispor 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.08 xG and Kocaelispor 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.826 / defence 1.023 | Kocaelispor attack 0.722 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.214. Kocaelispor's attack rating of 0.722 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Data: built from Alanyaspor's last 62 games and Kocaelispor's last 26.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 38% | Kocaelispor 26%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.78 | Draw 2.65 | Kocaelispor 3.80. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Alanyaspor's last 10 home games and Kocaelispor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alanyaspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Kocaelispor 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 27 | Venue: GAİN Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 38% | Kocaelispor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Alanyaspor 1.08 / Kocaelispor 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.826 / def 1.023 | Kocaelispor attack 0.722 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Kocaelispor xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor FAQs
What time does Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Alanyaspor 5 - 0 Kocaelispor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor being played?
The match is being played at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 27) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 36% chance of winning, Kocaelispor a 26% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (0.83) and Kocaelispor's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kocaelispor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Alanyaspor's last 62 games and Kocaelispor's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.78
38%
2.65
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
1.98
0.90
Kocaelispor xG
2.78
36%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
9%
11.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.90 for Kocaelispor, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor's recent record stands at 5W 13D 8L from 26 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Kocaelispor, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 11L across 26 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.08 PPG, Kocaelispor on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Alanyaspor have managed 4W 3D 5L from their last 12 home games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kocaelispor's away record stands at 3W 3D 6L across their last 12 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Kocaelispor are on 0.88 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Kocaelispor
Blended
Alanyaspor (Home) vs Kocaelispor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alanyaspor
Blended
Kocaelispor
Blended
❓ Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor Form FAQs
What form are Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 5W 13D 8L in their last 26 games (1.08 PPG), while Kocaelispor have gone 9W 6D 11L in their last 26 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Kocaelispor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.25 PPG; Kocaelispor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Kocaelispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kocaelispor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2025. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Mar 2026, when Alanyaspor won Alanyaspor 5-0 Kocaelispor.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Kocaelispor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
0
Draws
2
Kocaelispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Alanyaspor have won 1, Kocaelispor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: Alanyaspor 1-2 Kocaelispor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor?
Kocaelispor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kocaelispor see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 42%, Kocaelispor 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Alanyaspor) and 33% (Kocaelispor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 33% of games; Kocaelispor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Kocaelispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 42% of Kocaelispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 33% of Kocaelispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 42% of Kocaelispor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Alanyaspor run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Kocaelispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Kocaelispor 5-0 at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.08 xG and Kocaelispor 0.90 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kocaelispor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.02 against Kocaelispor attack 0.72 / defence 0.98, drawn from 62/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 38% | Kocaelispor 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Alanyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 46%, Kocaelispor 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kocaelispor's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.08 PPG, Kocaelispor 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.