Alanyaspor 5-0 Kocaelispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Alanyaspor take on Kocaelispor.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alanyaspor host Kocaelispor at GAİN Park Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kocaelispor stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kocaelispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kocaelispor's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Alanyaspor) versus 1.30 (Kocaelispor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Alanyaspor, 1 for Kocaelispor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Kocaelispor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Kocaelispor in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 62% versus Kocaelispor 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alanyaspor 46% | Kocaelispor 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.08 xG and Kocaelispor 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.826 / defence 1.023 | Kocaelispor attack 0.722 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.214. Data: 62 Alanyaspor games / 26 Kocaelispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 38% | Kocaelispor 26%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.78 | Draw 2.63 | Kocaelispor 3.85. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 50% | Kocaelispor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: GAİN Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Mar 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 38% | Kocaelispor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 43% | xG Alanyaspor 1.08 / Kocaelispor 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.826 / def 1.023 | Kocaelispor attack 0.722 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Kocaelispor xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor kicked off at 13:00 on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Alanyaspor 5 - 0 Kocaelispor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor being played?
The match is being played at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 36% chance of winning, Kocaelispor a 26% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor?
Record (1 meetings): Alanyaspor 0W | Draws 0 | Kocaelispor 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Kocaelispor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (0.83) and Kocaelispor's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kocaelispor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.78
38%
2.65
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
1.98
0.90
Kocaelispor xG
2.78
36%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
9%
11.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.90 for Kocaelispor, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor's recent record stands at 5W 13D 8L from 26 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kocaelispor, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 11L across 26 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Kocaelispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.08 PPG, Kocaelispor on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Alanyaspor have managed 4W 3D 5L from 12 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kocaelispor's away record stands at 3W 3D 6L across 12 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Kocaelispor are on 0.88 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Kocaelispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 5W 13D 8L in their last 26 games (1.08 PPG), while Kocaelispor have gone 9W 6D 11L in their last 26 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Kocaelispor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.25 PPG; Kocaelispor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Kocaelispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kocaelispor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
0
Draws
1
Kocaelispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor?
From 2 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Kocaelispor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Alanyaspor 5-0 Kocaelispor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kocaelispor see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 42%, Kocaelispor 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Alanyaspor) and 33% (Kocaelispor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 33% of games; Kocaelispor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Kocaelispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Kocaelispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 42% of Kocaelispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 33% of Kocaelispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kocaelispor in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Alanyaspor run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Kocaelispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Kocaelispor 5-0 at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.08 xG and Kocaelispor 0.90 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kocaelispor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.02 against Kocaelispor attack 0.72 / defence 0.98, drawn from 62/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 38% | Kocaelispor 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Alanyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 46%, Kocaelispor 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kocaelispor's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.08 PPG, Kocaelispor 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.