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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 33 as Alanyaspor welcome Kayserispor to Alanya Oba Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Alanyaspor — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Alanyaspor's home record at Alanya Oba Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kayserispor have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Kayserispor's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alanyaspor at 0.80 PPG versus Kayserispor's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

Alanyaspor hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 2 for Kayserispor, with 2 draws in between.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Alanyaspor and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 57% versus Kayserispor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 44% | Kayserispor 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.70 xG and Kayserispor 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.023 / defence 1.100 | Kayserispor attack 0.664 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.110. Data: 68 Alanyaspor games / 68 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 55% | Draw 30% | Kayserispor 14%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | Kayserispor 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (55%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 60% | Kayserispor 30% BTTS from recent games.

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