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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Alanya Oba Stadium plays host to Alanyaspor versus Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 18 April 2027 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Alanyaspor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Alanyaspor at Alanya Oba Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Kasımpaşa (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Kasımpaşa haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Kasımpaşa's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Alanyaspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Kasımpaşa in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head ledger leans to Kasımpaşa, who have claimed 7 wins from 10 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Kasımpaşa winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Kasımpaşa have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Kasımpaşa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 62% versus Kasımpaşa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 47% | Kasımpaşa 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.90 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.045 / defence 1.034 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.018 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Alanyaspor games / 34 Kasımpaşa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 52% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 22%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Kasımpaşa 4.55. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Kasımpaşa 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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