Alanyaspor 1-2 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
GAIN Park Stadium plays host to Alanyaspor versus Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Alanyaspor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor at GAIN Park Stadium this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at GAIN Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Kasımpaşa (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Alanyaspor, 3 for Kasımpaşa and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2024, ended 1–2 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 54% versus Kasımpaşa 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 46% | Kasımpaşa 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.17 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.791 / defence 0.799 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.116 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.277. Alanyaspor's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Alanyaspor's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Alanyaspor games / 46 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 30% | Kasımpaşa 34%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Kasımpaşa 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 50% | Kasımpaşa 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: GAIN Park Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 30% | Kasımpaşa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Alanyaspor 1.17 / Kasımpaşa 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.791 / def 0.799 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.116 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Kasımpaşa xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at GAIN Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Alanyaspor 1 - 2 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at GAIN Park Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 36% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (6 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 2 | Kasımpaşa 3W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (0.79) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (1.12x) against Alanyaspor's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
36%
2.80
30%
3.33
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.31
1.14
Kasımpaşa xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
11%
8.73
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.14 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 14W 19D 13L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 17W 13D 16L from 46 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Alanyaspor against 1.39 for Kasımpaşa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Alanyaspor have posted 1.45 PPG from 22 outings (7W 11D 4L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 8W 6D 8L from 22 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.54 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 14W 19D 13L in their last 46 games (1.33 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 17W 13D 16L in their last 46 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.45 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Kasımpaşa go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kasımpaşa won 4-1 on 4 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
7
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Kasımpaşa have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alanyaspor see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 64%, Kasımpaşa 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Alanyaspor) and 59% (Kasımpaşa).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Alanyaspor's games and 64% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 59% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kasımpaşa defy the odds to beat Alanyaspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Alanyaspor 1-2 at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.17 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.14 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Kasımpaşa outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.79 / defence 0.80 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.12 / defence 1.01, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 30% | Kasımpaşa 34%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 46%, Kasımpaşa 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.33 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.