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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Göztepe encounter.

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Analysis

Göztepe make the trip to Alanya Oba Stadium to face Alanyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Alanyaspor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Alanyaspor's home record at Alanya Oba Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Göztepe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Göztepe haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Göztepe away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Alanyaspor against 1.30 for Göztepe. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Alanyaspor have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 6 meetings, with Göztepe managing just 0 victories and 3 draws shared.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The historical record gives Alanyaspor a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Data

Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Göztepe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 62% versus Göztepe 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 47% | Göztepe 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.60 xG and Göztepe 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.047 / defence 1.036 | Göztepe attack 0.928 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Alanyaspor games / 34 Göztepe games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 47% | Draw 29% | Göztepe 24%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Göztepe 4.17. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Göztepe 50% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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