Alanyaspor 0-0 Gençlerbirliği S.K. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Alanyaspor face Gençlerbirliği S.K..
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alanyaspor host Gençlerbirliği S.K. at GAİN Park Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 25). Kick-off is Monday 9 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alanyaspor at 1.00 PPG versus Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Alanyaspor, 0 for Gençlerbirliği S.K. and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Alanyaspor 2–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K. — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Gençlerbirliği S.K. in-play and half-time data (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alanyaspor 62% and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 46% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 58%). Note also that Gençlerbirliği S.K. surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Alanyaspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.42 xG and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.924 / defence 1.072 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.678 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.227. Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack rating of 0.678 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Alanyaspor's last 60 games and Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s last 24.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 46% | Draw 35% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 20%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.19 | Draw 2.90 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 5.05. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Alanyaspor's last 10 home games and Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Alanyaspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 25 | Venue: GAİN Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 9 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 46% | Draw 35% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Alanyaspor 1.42 / Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.924 / def 1.072 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.678 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Gençlerbirliği S.K. xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. FAQs
What time does Alanyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 9 March 2026 at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Alanyaspor 0 - 0 Gençlerbirliği S.K..
Where is Alanyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. being played?
The match is being played at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. part of?
Alanyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 25) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 46% chance of winning, Gençlerbirliği S.K. a 20% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Alanyaspor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Alanyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 0.92x the league average against Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Alanyaspor's last 60 games and Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
46%
2.19
35%
2.90
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.31
0.89
Gençlerbirliği S.K. xG
2.19
46%
Home win
2.90
35%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
5%
20.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.5 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alanyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.89 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 24 games, going 5W 11D 8L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Gençlerbirliği S.K. sit at 1.00 PPG from 24 outings (6W 6D 12L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.08 PPG, Gençlerbirliği S.K. on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 4W 3D 5L across their last 12 home games, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have taken 0.42 points per game from their last 12 away games (1W 2D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Gençlerbirliği S.K. are on 1.17 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Gençlerbirliği S.K. in 62%.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Blended
Alanyaspor (Home) vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alanyaspor
Blended
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Blended
❓ Alanyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. Form FAQs
What form are Alanyaspor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 5W 11D 8L in their last 24 games (1.08 PPG), while Gençlerbirliği S.K. have gone 6W 6D 12L in their last 24 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Gençlerbirliği S.K. away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.25 PPG; Gençlerbirliği S.K. away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2025. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 2 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Nov 2026, when Gençlerbirliği S.K. won Gençlerbirliği S.K. 5-0 Alanyaspor.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
1
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Alanyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Alanyaspor have won 0, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2026: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 5-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 42%, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Alanyaspor) and 50% (Gençlerbirliği S.K.).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 33% of games; Gençlerbirliği S.K. in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Gençlerbirliği S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alanyaspor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 58% of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alanyaspor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 50% of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 67% of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Alanyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, as Alanyaspor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.42 xG and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.89 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Alanyaspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Gençlerbirliği S.K. landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.07 against Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.68 / defence 1.16, drawn from 60/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 46% | Draw 35% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 20%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 46%, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.08 PPG, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Gençlerbirliği S.K. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.