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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 18 as Alanyaspor welcome Gaziantep FK to Alanya Oba Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 January 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Alanya Oba Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Gaziantep FK — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gaziantep FK haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Gaziantep FK away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alanyaspor 1.10 PPG, Gaziantep FK 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Alanyaspor: 6 wins from 10 previous clashes against 2 for Gaziantep FK, with 2 draws across those contests.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives Alanyaspor a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Alanyaspor trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Gaziantep FK trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alanyaspor 62% and Gaziantep FK 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 47% | Gaziantep FK 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.83 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.047 / defence 1.035 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.983 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Alanyaspor games / 34 Gaziantep FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 51% | Draw 26% | Gaziantep FK 22%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Gaziantep FK 4.55. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Gaziantep FK 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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