Alanyaspor 0-1 Galatasaray – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Galatasaray (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Alanyaspor face Galatasaray.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 7 as Alanyaspor welcome Galatasaray to GAİN Park Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor's home record at GAİN Park Stadyumu: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Galatasaray stand at 10W 0D 0L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Galatasaray have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Galatasaray have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Galatasaray's 3.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Alanyaspor's 1.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Galatasaray have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Alanyaspor.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Galatasaray winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Galatasaray have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Galatasaray trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 57% versus Galatasaray 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 45% | Galatasaray 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 0.81 xG and Galatasaray 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.977 / defence 0.749 | Galatasaray attack 1.474 / defence 0.633. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.233. Galatasaray's defence strength of 0.633 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Galatasaray have an above-average attack strength of 1.474 — the away xG of 1.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Alanyaspor's defence rating of 0.749 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Alanyaspor games / 42 Galatasaray games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 20% | Draw 33% | Galatasaray 47%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 5.00 | Draw 3.03 | Galatasaray 2.13. Galatasaray hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Galatasaray as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Galatasaray offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 40% | Galatasaray 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: GAİN Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 26 Sep 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 20% | Draw 33% | Galatasaray 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Alanyaspor 0.81 / Galatasaray 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.977 / def 0.749 | Galatasaray attack 1.474 / def 0.633 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Galatasaray xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 26 September 2025 at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Alanyaspor 0 - 1 Galatasaray.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray being played?
The match is being played at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray part of?
Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 20% chance of winning, Galatasaray a 47% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Alanyaspor and Galatasaray will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Galatasaray?
Record (8 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 2 | Galatasaray 5W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Galatasaray in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Galatasaray (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (0.98) and Galatasaray's defence rating (0.63), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Galatasaray's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
20%
5.12
33%
3.01
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.17
1.36
Galatasaray xG
5.12
20%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
5%
19.98
21%
4.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 15.6 | 10.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Galatasaray expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.36 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 12D 16L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Galatasaray sit at 2.69 PPG from 42 outings (36W 5D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Galatasaray, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Galatasaray carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 9W 6D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Galatasaray have taken 2.65 points per game from 20 outings (17W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Galatasaray are on 2.55 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Galatasaray in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Early Season
Galatasaray
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Galatasaray in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 14W 12D 16L in their last 42 games (1.29 PPG), while Galatasaray have gone 36W 5D 1L in their last 42 (2.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Galatasaray away?
Galatasaray's away record (2.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.65 PPG; Galatasaray away: 2.65 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Galatasaray been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Galatasaray in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Galatasaray runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Galatasaray have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Galatasaray won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Galatasaray specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
7
Galatasaray
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Galatasaray?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Galatasaray have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Galatasaray last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Galatasaray 3-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Galatasaray?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 55%, Galatasaray 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Alanyaspor) and 65% (Galatasaray).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Galatasaray in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Galatasaray away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Galatasaray?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Alanyaspor's games and 55% of Galatasaray's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Galatasaray usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 65% of Galatasaray's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Galatasaray tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Galatasaray in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Galatasaray edge out Alanyaspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galatasaray beat Alanyaspor 0-1 at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 0.81 xG and Galatasaray 1.36 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Alanyaspor fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 0.75 against Galatasaray attack 1.47 / defence 0.63, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 20% | Draw 33% | Galatasaray 47%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 45%, Galatasaray 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Galatasaray's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.69 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Galatasaray (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.