Alanyaspor 1-1 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Göztepe make the trip to GAIN Park Stadium to face Alanyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Friday 23 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Alanyaspor have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor's home record at GAIN Park Stadium: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Göztepe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Alanyaspor against 1.00 for Göztepe. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Alanyaspor, 0 for Göztepe and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 2–0 with Alanyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.44 xG and Göztepe 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.001 / defence 1.002 | Göztepe attack 0.712 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.272. Data: 40 Alanyaspor games / 2 Göztepe games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 48% | Draw 30% | Göztepe 22%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Göztepe 4.55. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: GAIN Park Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 23 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 48% | Draw 30% | Göztepe 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Alanyaspor 1.44 / Göztepe 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.001 / def 1.002 | Göztepe attack 0.712 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Göztepe xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Göztepe kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 23 August 2024 at GAIN Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Göztepe?
Alanyaspor 1 - 1 Göztepe.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at GAIN Park Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Göztepe part of?
Alanyaspor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 48% chance of winning, Göztepe a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Alanyaspor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Göztepe?
Record (2 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Göztepe 0W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Göztepe in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Göztepe (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Göztepe's attack (0.71x) against Alanyaspor's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
48%
2.10
30%
3.28
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.34
0.91
Göztepe xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
5%
19.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.91 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 1D 1L record — D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Göztepe's form line: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Göztepe are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alanyaspor.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Göztepe in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Early Season
Göztepe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 (1.00 PPG).
Have Alanyaspor or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Göztepe in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Göztepe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
0
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 3, Göztepe have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Göztepe 2-2 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Göztepe?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Alanyaspor's games and 50% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 50% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Alanyaspor and Göztepe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor and Göztepe finished level at 1-1 at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.44 xG and Göztepe 0.91 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.00 against Göztepe attack 0.71 / defence 0.94, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 48% | Draw 30% | Göztepe 22%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 50%, Göztepe 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alanyaspor conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.